Didn’t know this!
I don’t have kids, but I’m glad this is available.
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" … But Airtrain chief executive Chris Basche said the declining asset value did not tell the whole story.
“The statutory balance sheet is backward-looking, based on historical cost amortised under applicable accounting standards,” he said.
“It does not reflect the economic value of the Airtrain concession.” … "
" … A spokesman for Queensland Transport Minister Brent Mickelberg said the government was committed to the current arrangement.
Under that arrangement, Airtrain has exclusive rights under a 35-year contract with the state government that started in 2001. At the end of the contract in 2036, the asset would be returned to the state. … "
I feel there is game of bluff going on in this statement. If the Government genuinely walk away and leave the contract to run its course, the owners of Airtrain risk losing a significant uplift. Even if the Government subsidise trains for the month of the Olympics, that might cost them $1-3m. A lot cheaper than paying overs for an asset that only has 10 years remaining on it. Especially when global travel is softening, and therefore patronage number on the trains.
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Yes, that is the best that can be expected. The Government is not interested in buying out the contract.
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An on-paper valuation of $45 million does not mean that this is the amount that the Government would have to stump up to purchase it. Practically no going concern is sold for its on-paper valuation, but usually multiples of this valuation, relating to the value of the projected earnings for the next couple of years among other things.
Even with the value of Airtrain steadily declining as the tenure of the concession draws down, the Government would still be up for notably more than that $45m to buy out the contract, and I think it is a pretty simplistic view that Michael Berkman has taken to suggest as much.
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I’m very pleased to see the two testable predictions I made in the past are both true:
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The value of Airtrain is like a bond that expires.
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The value of Airtrain decreases every year, until on the last day of the concession, its value will be zero.
Instead of buying Airtrain, that money should be used to reduce the ticket price and extra “top up” services.
The contract will then eventually expire and the Queensland Government will get the asset back for free.
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No govt would now “buy-out” for many millions of dollars the infrastructure, when in a decade it comes to them at no material cost. As noted, they will, in the “shorter-term”, simply pay for additional train slots in the lead up to, during and for a time after the Games.
What we should be starting to campaign for - remember, this is Queeeennnssslllaaaannndd - so the bleeding obvious takes a long time to happen - is just what will happen with the corridor AFTER it comes into State ownership??
ie additional stations, 24/7 operation, corridor extensions - can the line be brought around the end of the Airport [sunk] and connect up (Perth style) with the M1 and run north and develop a new, additional line to parts “northern”?
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Line duplication plus one new station at DFO.
How this interacts with the Doomben line will have to be seen, but it might trigger a review of the Doomben Line, as it shares the same tracks.
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Let’s say the value of Brisbane Airtrain is $45 million this year (2026).
And it loses about $5 million in value each year.
How long until Airtrain is worth $0?
$45/5 = 9 years.
Maybe they are using financial years, which could explain the small gap required to make 2026 + 9 equal to the year 2036.
Brisbanetimes says that the contract expires 5 May 2036.
So given the above trend, it is definitely on the path to zero (book) value at the end.
Flying junction would be a better spend than duplication imo.
Partial duplication by building Skygate station may be all you need (if anything) seeing as 4tph is perfectly fine with existing infrastructure.
I’d want to see the Skygate precinct densified/developed a little more to justify an infill station at govt expense though
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Agree that the grade separation is more important than dual tracking, at least until there is demonstrated demand for greater than 4tph.
Skeptical about whether a DFO station is a priority. We don’t generally build train stations just to support shopping centres and the speed of the Airport train is pretty important.
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4TPH is all this line needs. It just needs them all day until 10pm.
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Well, Indooroopilly, Chermside and Carindale were all built off the main rail network. It hasn’t been a good idea IMO.
Toowong, gets a lot of use.
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I think you could get Brisbane airport to build the station. The gov could promise extra trains in exchange and that will enable the airport to develop their own land further.
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The Greens have put something out on Facebook about it.
It does seem to confuse ownership and fares, which are separate things.
Airtrain was subsidised briefly to drop fares under the previous Red Team Government led by Steven Miles.
I didn’t mean that it’s not a good idea to have train stations serving shopping centres, just that we don’t generally go and specially build one to serve a shopping centre that the owners decided to build without one.
Major shopping centres were specifically designed around private motor car access (based on the American model), hence not being co-located with any train stations. Keep in mind that, long before it became a Westfield, Chermside was known as the Chermside Drive In Shopping Centre, promoted as “an island of retailing in a lake of parking.”
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How about this? We build a station at Skygate but they pay for a substantial portion of it. Straightforward value capture. Could also include the Novotel and maybe another hotel or similar.
I’m someone who tends to fall in the camp of a station at Skygate being a good thing, especially if it also meant better connections with the 590 on the Cleveland line. This would markedly improve crosstown connections in that part of the city.
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A Skygate station to me makes sense as an interchange point with the northern end of a future actual metro service in the inner city. It would need a decent sized depot site on land which is preferably primarily industrial or not intensively used - maybe where the driving range is (or under it).
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