There is absolute no reason you cannot reliably run 4tph to shorncliffe with 1 platform if you simply dulpcate the line between sandgate and shorncliff.
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I don’t even know how QR chooses train lines to duplicate. Why did they decide to only duplicate the Ferny Grove line back in the early 2010s while waiting a good decade to upgrade the more patronised Beenleigh and Gold Coast lines? Why does the Cleveland line duplication have to wait after the completion of CRR? What event should happen for QR to consider duplicating the Shorncliffe line (or signal the passing loop at they very barest)?
I was not involved in the transit space back then. Was duplication really a QR responsibility? I would have thought that sort of project (much like LGCFR) is a TMR/ministerial responsibility. At which point it becomes highly politicised.
So I’d just assumed that at the time, a bunch of Brisbane inner North western seats were marginal and they wanted to duplicate the FG line as a form of pork barreling 
Ferny grove station is one of the busiest non cbd station.
Exactly this.
But does that mean they chose the Ferny Grove line for duplication due to higher patronage, or the Ferny Grove line has a higher patronage due to duplication and higher frequencies?
If the latter, then the choice of the Ferny Grove line for duplication is arbitrary, and the same can be done for the Shorncliffe line and we’ll see the same effects on the upgraded line.