Iāve always thought adding the infrastructure to allow a 209 to Indooroopilly, etc would be game changing, but this year Iāve had the need to make more cross-town trips (Coorparoo - Chapel Hill) and Iām not as convinced.
My Saturday Experience
Last Saturday I went via UQ and was hoping to transfer to 425 and was surprised to see both are essentially timetabled the same duration:
428 UQ (15:52) - Indooroopilly (16:08)
425 Ann 5 (15:51) - Indooroopilly (16:10)
Note: My GoCard shows 428 touch-off 2min early and 425 touch-on min early but we would have left on-time with total boarding/alighting
UQ - Indro by Surface Road
The above shows that speed of the trunk City - Indro corridor even for a bus and despite the longer distance makes a via UQ route a lot less competitive for non-St Lucia Peninsula journeys.
Now clearly the 428 isnāt the fastest route, but looking weekday midday off-peak:
432: 13min
427: 13min
428: 15min
Google Maps driving is giving 10-16min midday Monday for the 432 alignment and 12-16min for 428 alignment.
So with a surface alignment 13min probably is best timing.
Current Rail (Buranda - Indro)
Looking at rail timetables:
Roma St to Indro is 12min stopping or 8min.
Buranda to Roma St is 10min
Assuming a 5min transfer thatās 23 - 27min from Buranda to Indro by rail.
Current Bus (Buranda - UQ)
169 is 8min Buranda to UQ Lakes.
I think best case (tunnel) would be 3min (Including some dwell) for Lakes - Chancellor or via parameter probably 6min.
This means off-peak Buranda to Indro bus through route would be ~24-27min vs rail 23-27min (Although this is train to train station vs bus to bus station). Add at least another 5min at peak and rail is now faster.
Not in any way suggesting we should go back to it but for reference P88 was 29min off-peak Buranda - Indro
Tunnel/Grade separating (UQ - Indro)
Tunnelling or some other form of grade separation would reduce variability and speed up the trip but you would definitely be limiting where stations are and it wouldnāt be cheap. Essentially you are building a bypass of the area which needs the improved connections the most to speed up trips which can be done alternative ways in a similiar time.
Further I think an extension would struggle with load-balancing. From what Iāve seen UQ loads are often pretty close to capacity and itās fairly likely that UQ bound passengers could block through passengers. e.g. If 402 was through running and arrived at Boggo westbound too full to pick up all rail connecting passengers and 29 sweeper terminating at UQ Lakes arrived just behind with capacity, this doesnāt help a Toowong bound passenger. Thereās just no way to āreserveā through capacity which you also see with the routes continuing through the City, Garden City, Chermside, Indro.
Thereās also the aspect that the Metro upgrade of UQ Lakes has essentially blocked it in and I donāt believe thereās a way to build a exit without removing a stop/s and you would be creating either a bike/pedestrian crossing.
Combined, my view is a busway/Brisbane Metro tunnel wouldnāt be worth it versus building a proper āMetroā/subway. I think thereās pretty broad support here that at some point in the future a ā- City - South Brisbane - West End - UQ - Indro -ā alignment or similiar will be justified.
St Lucia - UQ Lakes
Given my belief that through-running benefits St Lucia the most and a busway extension doesnāt effectively do this, I believe the pragmatic next step would be to build a UQ Lakes āPlatform 3ā on Sir William MacGregor Drive and extend at least some of the western routes around. This is consistent with the feeding into Metro approach and is a better use of capacity as passengers can always catch the first trip to UQ rather than needing to pick specific routes. This removes the biggest barrier for local trips which is the 750m/10min+ walk between stations.
Other Bus Options
One benefit of BNBN is streamlining the 105 to operate direct Boggo - Yeerongpilly - Tennyson - Indro omitting the Yeronga loop. This is 34min PAH to Indro off-peak or about 36min from Buranda to Indro (Assuming theoretical 105 extension to Langlands terminus).
If coming from rail Yeerongpilly to Indro is 25min (105), Yeerongpilly to Corinda is 14min (104), Salisbury to Indro is 24min (GCL), Salisbury to Sherwood is 13min (GCL).
If the aim is to improve cross-town or āreplace Tennysonā I believe service increases on 104, 105 and GCL alignments would be significantly more cost effective options.
You could even look to redirect 105 to run Holland Park West (HPW) - Moorooka (Moorvale) - Yeerongpilly - Tennyson - Indro at about 43min (18min for new section) which would be competitive anywhere west of SEB and open a lot of cross-town journeys given 12min HPW - UQ (169) or 19min HPW - Roma (M1 + M2 to remove M1 terminus padding).
Concluding thoughts
I certainly still think there are benefits to opening up UQ Lakes - UQ Chancellors Place but this is overwhelmingly for local trips and I believe the best way to do this is to extend western routes to UQ Lakes rather than extend the Eastern Busway. For broader cross-town trips and connectivity, improving connections to and between the trunk high-speed cooridors (Busway, rail) such as upgrades to 104, GCL frequency, redirecting 105 to Moorooka/HPW and improving Indro bus-rail interchange and upgrading trunk corridors (All day Ipswich express) is going to offer a lot more value for money than I now think extending the eastern busway will and any change can go towards an eventual proper subway/metro.