Actually the 150 and the 330 both show most of their patronage inbound of their rail cross - for the 330 it looks like a little over 1/4 of the boardings are north of Zillmere on average (and more people go Zillmere-Chermside than transfer to rail from north of Z).
15 min all day frequency for the Ipswich line (and running the express pattern too). Before anyone mentions low density/population, see Perth where all lines are 15-minutes all day.
15 min all day frequency to Shorncliffe (short duplication required between Sandgate-Shorncliffe)
More tricky/complex:
Extend 15 min frequency from Cannon Hill to “Station X” further down the Cleveland line (works required) (Station X = exact station to be determined but likely Manly/Lota)
Extend 15 min frequency from Station X to Cleveland (major works required)
Unknowns
Beenleigh Line - what is possible once CRR and LGCFR is completed?
Gold Coast Line - as per Beenleigh Line
Conclusion
Overall, there would need to be a major train service boost program before the Brisbane 2032 Olympics to bring service standards to a level comparable to Perth.
At least four lines could be boosted with relatively little or no infrastructure works; Some other lines (Beenleigh/Gold Coast) it is less clear what is possible (can they both do 15 min in both directions off-peak at the same time?).
Notes
Transperth train timetables - shows 15 minute service on all train lines during the day off-peak and also on weekends.
Well, Ipswich has the combined population of Mandurah and Rockingham (WA), which receive 15 min trains all day AND all weekend.
Perth residents are getting that sort of service level on a SUNDAY. Residents of Greater Brisbane aren’t getting this on a weekday!
In any case, boosting Springfield-Kippa Ring or even just Springfield line alone would allow the Ipswich line to convert to the all day express pattern.
The extra speed will (about 10 min time saving) will boost patronage.
Edit & TLDR: Frequency of Shorncliffe line can increase significantly without duplication with upgraded signalling and faster turnback time.
Considering that the Shorncliffe line can reliably run 15min frequency during peak hour in both directions with the single-track final leg, there isn’t much need for a duplication to Shorncliffe to run 15min frequencies to Shorncliffe all day. They can extend off-peak Northgate services to Shorncliffe currently.
The single-track stretch from Sandgate to Shorncliffe is not a very long one (approx. 2 minutes from Shorncliffe to Sandgate); the train will spend around 4min in motion on the final Shorncliffe leg, meaning the single-track section will be occupied for 4min + turnback time at Shorncliffe. I read somewhere in a blogpost by BrizCommuter that said Brisbane’s train turnback time is 8min. meaning the single-track leg will will be occupied for 12 minutes (4min travel time + 8min turnback time), allowing for 15min frequencies to Shorncliffe all day.
With the rollout of ETCS, I heard that part of the benefit is that the new signalling system will allow for significantly quicker turnback times. Furthermore, since the same blogpost mentioned that turnback times can be 2min at other cities around the world, the single-track leg will be occupies for 6 minutes (4min travel time + 2min turnback time, assuming ETCS allows 2min turnback time). This is double the current time the single-track leg will be occupied for.
While a duplication to Shorncliffe would be a dream, I feel like TMR will refuse to duplicate the leg due to them being able to significantly increase frequency with ETCS.
(Feel free to correct me if ETCS does not allow faster turnback.
Edit: are turnback times are relevant to the topic of stopping patterns?)
I’d assume services beyond Nambour (Cooroy or Gympie North) in peak hour (on the scenario that Peak Services to Gympie North will still operate post-CRR) will ‘not’ be using the CRR and will operate on the existing tracks via Central.
Currently theres only a Single daily to Gympie North which could easily be doubled to 2 each (morning and afternoon peak) at the minimum. The twice-daily weekday peak “Gympielanders” could run express Bowen Hills to Beerwah stopping only at Eagle Junction, Petrie and Caboolture.
I think that may be the plan to effectively merge Caboolture and DSCL into the one line. When the Beerburrum-Beerwah duplication opens, some of the existing Caboolture terminators could be extended to terminate into Beerwah pre-DSCL. For example between 9am and 3:30pm weekdays inter-peak could be half-hourly to Beerwah and hourly to Nambour, and hourly to Nambour on weekends from 8am to 6pm.
Post DSCL, the only Caboolture “short-running terminators” will effectively be during Peak Periods and late evenings for storage in the Elimbah NGR train yard.
The current Nambour services effectively become a shuttle to Beerwah during the off-peak and weekends, although many shuttle services could be expanded through to Cooroy and/or Gympie North.
The current peak-hour “Gympielander” could be ‘doubled’ to two services per day during peak periods, however assuming it doesn’t run on the CRR and is a via Central service originating from Roma Street. The peak hour “Gympielanders” could run express Bowen Hills to Beerwah, stopping only at Eagle Junction, Petrie and Caboolture. Then all stations from Beerwah to Gympie North.
To not break sectorisatio, I’d rather see any Gympie North services be turned even further into “Gympielander” style services and have them run through Platform 9 or even 10 at Roma Street, and run in and out of the city via the surface tracks on the Exhibition loop. I believe there are crossovers to trains to go to Platform 10 at Roma Street and then service Exhibition station. Adding some faregates at platform 10 wouldn’t be that hard anyway and would be useful to do to allow for that extra flexibility at Roma Street. It’s not like the handful of long distance services use it all day
What if the Gympielanders ran express all the way from Bowen Hills to Nambour, stopping only at Caboolture and Landsborough? The main population centres along the Nambour line are at Landsborough and Nambour, meaning that they are able to use the train that pretty much directly goes to Brisbane City with only two stops between Nambour and Brisbane (Landsborough & Caboolture). Lower population areas along the Nambour line will already be served by the Beerwah-Nambour shuttle.
Possible stopping patterns for this year’s Caravan and Camping and Ekka.
The trains for Caravan and Camping could use the Ekka station as a turn back, as from today platform 1 is yet to be connected to the main line from the north. They could also just use platform 2 as a one-way loop.
Let’s be real: I can only see Nambour/Gympie services running as shuttles from Beerwah or maybe Caboolture due to availability of platforms there.
Hell, with some extra funding a second platform could be built at Gympie North for a hypothetical return of services to Gympie Central as a way to make rail services more accessible to the town itself.
(Or even run shuttles all the way to Maryborough…)
One thing that needs to be done to the timetable asap (if possible) is have the trains that go to/from Coopers Plains continue to/from Altandi so passengers can connect to the GC services.
In off peak, these are useless especially outbound if heading to the GC.
Whilst TMR/QR may be able to get away with operating frequent (hourly) Cooroy/Nambour-Beerwah shuttles in a post DSCL world, with the shuttle (maybe) upped to half hourly during the morning and afternoon peaks, I’d suspect those beyond Nambour towards Gympie North may possibly complain about losing their sole weekday peak direct train.
As Gympie North serviecs are operationally ‘separate’ from Nambour services, and are not likely to change if the sole peak ‘Gympielander’ is retained, finding a path for the Gympielander(s) and maybe ‘doubling’ the Gympielanders to two originating from Roma Street (on the surface) will be an interesting challenge.
The peak ‘Gympielander(s)’ are likely to be the few/token direct services beyond Beerwah (weekdays only), with all Nambour and/or Cooroy starters terminating and turning back at Beerwah.
I’ve caught the gympielander a few times when I worked late in the city and it happened to be the next arriving SCL service. Of the few times I’ve caught it this year I was shocked by how quiet it was, likely due to the lack of stops between Petrie and Caboolture where a lot of BRNA passengers disembark.
I’d be curious to see how many BRGY customers actually stay on past Nambour. Obviously for those passengers it would be a pain, but if losing the direct service in place transfer at Beerwah/Caboolture resulted in them getting more frequent services I think overall that’s a pretty fair trade off. With the new island platform layout at Beerwah you could have the Gympie shuttle basically waiting at Platform 2 to allow a cross platform transfer from the peak DSCL/Birtinya service on Platform 3.
The travel time from Beerwah to Gympie North is about 1h45m, so an hourly shuttle between Beerwah and Gympie North would require what, 4 trains? I reckon that’s achievable, you could even get away with 3 car sets so you’d only require 2 full length IMU sets to achieve it.
Gympie can just have a path to and from the CBD between DSCL services. It could just be that it serves only limited stops between Cooroy and Caboolture if there will be other services covering this stretch. There can also be more services no further south than Beerwah during the day, and making it clearer how and where Gympie passengers can access Traveltrain services.
If sectors, line pairing and potentially stopping patterns are being changed post CRR, then surely incorporating Gympie North services into the Beerwah-Nambour shuttles wouldn’t be a massive task to undertake. Am I correct in understanding that due to signalling there has to be an additional QR staff member on board north Nambour? From a labour perspective that must be expensive, but still doable if the relevant authorities want it to be…
NGR and 160/260 class MUs are slowly progressively being fitted with ETCS equipment. That should eventually negate the need for a third crew member joining the train at Nambour. ETCS1 has been installed between Caboolture and Gympie North, which should supersede the ATP system on the same corridor.
The concerns about the “loss” of the sole Gympie North weekday peak train I’d suspect may still be raised with locals beyond Nambour, and retaining that may keep the “token direct” beyond Beerwah to Nambour and Gympie North via Central or Exhibition (originating from Roma Street Platform 10) as operationally Gympie North are a ‘separate sector’ from the standard Nambour runs which will use the CRR.
But as said by others, increased extended Gympie North shuttles (e.g 2 to 4 per day) during the weekday inter-peak and the weekends/public holidays should address the loss of the single direct train in those periods.