Historical Queensland Plans

Research and Articles
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A thread for historical Queensland Plans that don’t fit into another category already.

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Connecting SEQ 2031

Released 2011.
Contained many flashy/expensive concepts - some were built, some stayed concepts.

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Gold Coast City Council Transport Plan 2031

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The Connecting SEQ 2031 Plan

Released in 2011, it is now worth looking at what has come to fruition, and what has not.

  • North-West Transport Corridor (NWTC) - dropped. The corridor is likely to stay protected for environmental reasons and because the community would prefer a subsurface tunnel alignment versus a surface alignment. NWTC is now the Gympie Road Tunnel, which was not even mentioned in the original plan. From reading the summary business case and seeing the BCR of just 0.2, the Gympie Road tunnel substitute or replacement for the NWTC too is also unviable.

  • Frequent Trains - partial achievement. Daytime 15-minute trains were introduced on the Ferny Grove Line, parts of the Cleveland Line and parts of the Beenleigh Line. However, much of the network doesn’t have 15 minute daytime trains and unlike Perth, frequent train service disappears on weekends. This is interesting, because frequent BUZ bus service doesn’t disappear on weekends, even though trains and buses may be covering more or less the same residential areas.

  • The concept of coast-to-coast express trains resonated with the public and looked good from a PR perspective, but operationally, exposes the network to cascading delays and unreliability. So it’s very unlikely to be implemented.

  • Springfield Line Extension - dropped. Due to the high cost of extending modes that use Priority A ROW or Corridor, the Springfield rail line has not been extended from either Springfield or Ipswich. This corridor is likely to be delivered as a Brisbane Metro BRT bus or ordinary frequent buses. Implementation of rail extension is likely to be 20+ years away. There may be an opportunity to incrementally extend the line or pursue construction of the Ellen Grove station (along with TOD or denser land use around the proposed station).

  • The CAMCOS/Sunshine Coast/Sunshine Coast Direct Line/The Wave/[Insert Future Names here] Line - Substituted. The rail line has a very high per-km unit cost to construct compared to other lines around Australia, so part of it will be delivered as rail and part of it (possibly most of it) will be delivered as a Brisbane Metro BRT bus. The high cost is partly a reflection of the line having to travel through environmentally sensitive areas.

  • Cross River Rail - achieved. This project was delayed and rescoped many times, surviving multiple reviews and being cancelled twice. But it will be opened, albeit after a delay.

  • Extension of Gold Coast Line to GC Airport - dropped. There seems to be little urgency to extend the line incrementally into the Gold Coast Airport precinct. An extension of the line would be a quick win. The terminus at GC Airport should be redesigned so that further extension south of the GC Airport is possible.

  • GC Light Rail - paused. Like the Sunshine Coast Direct Line, this will be introduced as buses for the short term. However, at some point the buses will simply not have the capacity and there will be little alternative but to extend the line at increased cost to GC Airport.

  • Brisbane Subway (rail mode) - it is not a serious proposal. This proposal is unsound in that a proposed solution has been selected that does not properly fit or address transport problems at hand within Brisbane. It appears to have been included to impart a forward-looking futuristic vibe or “progress narrative” to the document.

  • Not only are rail-based metro systems incredibly expensive (about $1.2 billion/km based on Sydney Metro), but it is arguably on the wrong alignment and solving the wrong problem too. The core issue within Brisbane and Greater Brisbane is that middle and outer suburbs do not have frequent all-day 15 min PT service. Placing a subway that goes from Toowong to Bowen Hills, will do nothing to expand the 15-minute PT service coverage area. Worse, it will actively divert funding from other projects that could solve this lack of service issue.

  • This is a project with both very high direct costs, very high indirect (opportunity) costs. It is only really viable if it is a replacement for the South East Busway or runs on a parallel alignment to it as a relief line.

  • Extension of Doomben Line. Extension of the Doomben line would be a sound concept if the line was already double tracked. However, it is not. This means that funding for extension also needs to include funding duplication of the line and potentially a separated rail junction at Eagle Junction and a viaduct structure over Kingsford Smith Drive. Given this, the project is mode-contestable and a BRT option that would not require the construction of an expensive viaduct over Kingsford Smith Drive could be a viable alternative. In addition, as the Olympic Stadium and Village has moved to near Victoria Park and the Brisbane Exhibition Showgrounds, the urgency is not there to extend the line.

Reflections

Overall, when reflecting on these plans it is clear that any long term plan is likely to be changed significantly from the original over time durations of 10-15 years. Most of the plans that have high costs or long lead times have been watered down as pursing them would simply be cost prohibitive.

Certain projects look good and sound good but are operationally or financially not viable (coast-to-coast trains, brisbane subway). There needs to be far more stress and viability testing done on any concepts that are included in plans, and it may even make sense to name and include ‘runner-up options’ in the plan as well for first-preference projects.

A good long-term plan should be reasonably resilient to change over time.

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The population in the areas serviced by the proposed subway was around 115,000 people in 2021 and the 2046 forecast/planned population according to QLD government is around 230,000.

Current public transport systems cannot adequately manage that level of high density population across the city.

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So looking at these numbers, if the population doubles in the time period given, then the PT trips in peak hour and during the day overall can be expected to double too.

I don’t think it would warrant the construction of a rail-based metro around the inner city though. Lots of BCC buses carry air in peak, and upgrading more routes to Brisbane Metro and BUZ services around the CBD and inner Brisbane suburbs would help a lot.

A mix of bus upgrades and potentially introducing LRT along selected corridors (e.g. rebuild the Victoria Bridge, LRT down the middle of Kingsford Smith Drive) would likely meet the transport task while avoiding the time and costs of a rail-based metro.

Assuming ballpark unit costs of:

  • $1.2 billion/km for rail-based metros
  • $100 million/km for LRT
    for every 1 km of rail-based metro you can get 12 km of LRT

It seems an mix of Brisbane Metro BRT and potentially LRT would meet the additional demand in and around the city.

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Salisbury to Flagstone ain’t getting built for another 100 years at this rate

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Brisbane Subway and Salisbury to Flagstone Rail should be revived as Mass Rapid Express (MREX) in my opinion.

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It’s likely to start as an express feeder bus initially, and that might be viable now.